Holy KRAP! Western Australia Excess Deaths

Preliminary Crayola(TM) Analysis of Western Australian Excess Deaths

Vaccine Roll-out and death data overlay of Figure 11 – Weekly excess deaths as a % of predicted in 2020-22 for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, SA and WA (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, SA omitted for clarity)

After writing my last post about excess deaths in Australia, I decided to get out my trusty Crayola Super Tip (TM) washable markers and trace some overlays over figure 11 in the COVID-19 Mortality Working Group – Excess mortality continues in August 2022 report.

Apologies for the blurriness and potato graphics, this was just a rough and ready look to see how the excess deaths (black line and blue bars) looked when compared to the number of covid vaccine doses administered (yellow line) and see if it was worth looking at in more detail. I also plotted the cumulative deaths (red line) to get an idea of when COVID deaths occurred in the state. I don’t have the underlying data to re-plot their charts.

The overlay chart above and the chart below from Mortality Working Group report below both show that COVID was only a factor after about March 2022.

Mortality Working Group - Figure 13 – Monthly excess deaths as a % of predicted in 2022 for the six states (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, SA omitted for clarity).

So what could be causing the excess deaths in WA?

The Mortality Working Group hypothesise a number of reasons for the excess deaths in Australia 2022 but don’t cover 2020-2021. Based on their observations, they also indicate which non-COVID 19 factors , in their view, are likely to be having a greater or lesser impact on Australian excess mortality in 2022, please see their report for more details. Below is a summary with my additions in bold italics.

COVID-19

The report claims the just over half of the excess mortality in Australia for the first eight months of 2022 is due to deaths from COVID-19. This doesn’t explain WA in 2021 and probably not 2022 either.

Non-COVID-19 excess deaths

• Post-COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID) or interactions with other causes of death:

  They say the absence of excess deaths in WA in January supports their explanation, but does it really explain WA 2021. It looks like cherry-picking to me.

Likely impact in Australia: High

• Delay in emergency care: The peaks in non-COVID-19 excess deaths at times of high COVID-19 and/or influenza deaths supports this hypothesis.

  Maybe true for Australia but it does not explain WA 2021.

Likely impact in Australia: High during COVID-19 and influenza peaks

• Mortality displacement: Australia had negative mortality displacement (i.e. fewer deaths than expected) in the first year or so of the pandemic, … As such, some of the excess we have seen in some causes in 2021 and 2022 may be the reversing of this effect. People who otherwise may have died earlier … may now be succumbing to their underlying illnesses.  Conversely, the earlier-than-usual flu season in 2022 appears to have resulted in some forward mortality displacement.

  Sounds plausible.

Likely impact in Australia: Moderate, likely to reduce over time

• Delay in routine care: Opportunities to diagnose or treat non-COVID-19 diseases have been missed for various reasons including fear and lack of opportunity. 

  This is unlikely in WA as there were very few lock-down measures in place and no reason to be fearful of COVID-19.

Likely impact in Australia: Low to Moderate, likely to increase over time

• Undiagnosed COVID-19: Some of the excess deaths could be from unidentified COVID-19.  This effect happened early in the pandemic, but it seems less likely in 2022, as testing is much more available, particularly for those who are seriously ill.  Also, for any deaths where COVID-19 may be suspected, post-mortem testing is occurring in Australia.  That said, the timing of the higher levels of non-COVID-19 excess deaths (once deaths with COVID-19 are also removed) coinciding with high levels of COVID-19 deaths suggests that there may be some undiagnosed COVID-19 deaths.

  Maybe true for Australia, but it does not explain WA 2021 as there was practically no covid deaths till about March 2022 despite the high testing rate.

Likely impact in Australia: Low, perhaps higher during COVID-19 peaks

• Mental health issues: There has been much discussion throughout the pandemic about the impacts on mental health, including commentary that lock-downs and other measures are causing an increase in suicide deaths. ….

  The report concludes this is an unlikely cause but I haven’t checked the evidence, they state it without reference as far as I can tell.

Likely impact in Australia: Low

• Pandemic-influenced lifestyle changes: There is evidence from the UK that a higher proportion of people made less healthy lifestyle choices during lock-downs (e.g. drinking more alcohol, exercising less, higher rates of childhood obesity), ….

  Again, unlikely in WA as there were very few lock-down measures in place.

Likely impact in Australia: Low

• Vaccine-related deaths: While there have been deaths in Australia caused by the administration of COVID-19 vaccines, the number of such deaths has been small.

  The temporal association in WA and lack of other explanations would strongly suggest to me that vaccine related deaths are likely a plausible explanation and worth further investigation.

Likely impact in Australia: Negligible

Summary

Something reduced deaths in Western Australia in 2020. Then “something” that wasn’t COVID-19 and wasn’t lock-downs and was co-incident in time to the vaccine rollout began to slowly ramp up excess deaths from early in 2021 and into early 2022 where it combined with COVID-19 and an earlier than normal influenza season to cause a peak in deaths in Autumn-Winter 2022. Further thoughts to come, but the initial Crayola(TM) analysis seems to show that there is “something” worth investigating properly.