Interesting one of the actuaries Ms Cutter said there were no excess deaths in January, true but why is a professional actuary appear to be cherry picking the data in an interview with news.com.au on the 8 December 2022.
Blind Freddy can see there is something wrong here. I think they have access to more data than publicly available, there estimate of covid deaths looks like they received the December ABS report early. There figure is pretty much the same as the unreleased data (at the time), but they've said it's about 8,000 in September and not in November as shown in the latest released from ABS report, they appear to be skewing the covid deaths into a tighter time frame to increase the covid rate.
Esterman quotes an outdated report the actuaries seem to have an unreleased report. Very strange.
‘Zero evidence’ of vaccine link
(..........)
“There is no credible evidence to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines have contributed to excess deaths in Australia or overseas,” the TGA said.
Ms Cutter also rubbished those claims.
“There is zero evidence that vaccines are causing these deaths as far as I’m concerned, but I cannot prove it,” she said.
(...)
Moreover, she noted the timing of the excess deaths “doesn’t match with the vaccine rollout, and the age profile of people dying does not match with people who’ve been vaccinated”.
“Hardly any young people are dying,” she said. She also noted there was no excess mortality in Western Australia in January and they were “just as vaccinated as the rest of the country”.
Thanks for this information. I do see a excess deaths rise with the rise of the vaccine. I don’t see how the vaccines can be totally ruled out. Perhaps in NSW & Vic there is an argument that could try to be used but WA I’m not buying what Eastman & co are selling
Well that’s all over place. NSW had no excess deaths & NT is minus 11 ? I find it somewhat suspect. I have no idea if they use the same methodology but you can’t have Covid kills after people have recovered from it through heart, stroke etc & no excess deaths in NSW. Either it does or it doesn’t. Something is a miss. You would think on the surface that NSW or Vic would have higher excess deaths than Tassy based on the facts of 2021. What do you think of the numbers ? Does it make sense to you ?
That’s right, it’s all over the place. I’ve only had a quick look and haven’t read their methodology. It’s all very strange, there are notes etc. Saying the small states numbers are more volatile etc. and that only Vic and SA are “statistically” significant. I don’t know yet. It’s counter intuitive. I need to scratch my head some more, it’s not what I was expecting. At first glance it makes no sense based on the generally held assumptions.
I think I’ve found a reason. They’ve used a shit model, that doesn’t really reflect covid reality, it probably does work for flu (its original purpose). I plan to write it up. But my model criticism, still doesn’t explain WA (and possibly other states as well) only NSW and Vic. had any meaningful covid cases and deaths in 2021.
Interesting one of the actuaries Ms Cutter said there were no excess deaths in January, true but why is a professional actuary appear to be cherry picking the data in an interview with news.com.au on the 8 December 2022.
Blind Freddy can see there is something wrong here. I think they have access to more data than publicly available, there estimate of covid deaths looks like they received the December ABS report early. There figure is pretty much the same as the unreleased data (at the time), but they've said it's about 8,000 in September and not in November as shown in the latest released from ABS report, they appear to be skewing the covid deaths into a tighter time frame to increase the covid rate.
Esterman quotes an outdated report the actuaries seem to have an unreleased report. Very strange.
‘Zero evidence’ of vaccine link
(..........)
“There is no credible evidence to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines have contributed to excess deaths in Australia or overseas,” the TGA said.
Ms Cutter also rubbished those claims.
“There is zero evidence that vaccines are causing these deaths as far as I’m concerned, but I cannot prove it,” she said.
(...)
Moreover, she noted the timing of the excess deaths “doesn’t match with the vaccine rollout, and the age profile of people dying does not match with people who’ve been vaccinated”.
“Hardly any young people are dying,” she said. She also noted there was no excess mortality in Western Australia in January and they were “just as vaccinated as the rest of the country”.
“The numbers do not stack up,” she added.'
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/excess-deaths-in-2022-incredibly-high-at-13-per-cent/news-story/2a33dfeeb7476765da4e237c59f59bf7
Thanks for this information. I do see a excess deaths rise with the rise of the vaccine. I don’t see how the vaccines can be totally ruled out. Perhaps in NSW & Vic there is an argument that could try to be used but WA I’m not buying what Eastman & co are selling
I’ve just looked at ABS Report:
https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic
Higher than “expected” deaths 2021
WA 7%
NSW 0%
Vic 8%
Qld 3%
SA 8%
Tas 10%
NT -11% (that’s minus 11%)
ACT 5%
What’s the pattern (if there is one)?
Well that’s all over place. NSW had no excess deaths & NT is minus 11 ? I find it somewhat suspect. I have no idea if they use the same methodology but you can’t have Covid kills after people have recovered from it through heart, stroke etc & no excess deaths in NSW. Either it does or it doesn’t. Something is a miss. You would think on the surface that NSW or Vic would have higher excess deaths than Tassy based on the facts of 2021. What do you think of the numbers ? Does it make sense to you ?
That’s right, it’s all over the place. I’ve only had a quick look and haven’t read their methodology. It’s all very strange, there are notes etc. Saying the small states numbers are more volatile etc. and that only Vic and SA are “statistically” significant. I don’t know yet. It’s counter intuitive. I need to scratch my head some more, it’s not what I was expecting. At first glance it makes no sense based on the generally held assumptions.
I think it’s due to climate change 😀
I think I’ve found a reason. They’ve used a shit model, that doesn’t really reflect covid reality, it probably does work for flu (its original purpose). I plan to write it up. But my model criticism, still doesn’t explain WA (and possibly other states as well) only NSW and Vic. had any meaningful covid cases and deaths in 2021.