Apology’s to Brian, I just noticed spell check or my dyslexia kept referring to him as Brain. This was not intentional, I’ve now fixed the spelling mistakes (hopefully).
Maybe, Brain is appropriate, his articles certainly make me think and question my bias.
Please note that deaths appear to lead cases. This is probably an artifact of using a 30/31 day rolling average to come up with the cases per month estimate but it is weird that deaths lead the prevalence calculation where I did not use any averaging, the daily case data is probably a week behind the testing data causing a 1 week lag, maybe the reports I used also had some averaging built in to smooth it out and that led to some additional lag as well.
The fourth jab least resembles an actual roll-out because the timing and duration are not well documented. If it was earlier and narrower it would line up better with the ‘worry window’ hypothesis.
EDITS:
1. The old out by 1 error. The deaths were entered wrong, they should all be shown one month later. Will fix later.
I'm still none the wiser as to how the test performance is impacted by viral mutations. Maybe I missed something in this labyrinth of links and technical jargon.
Is it that Omicron was so prolific that even a reduction in test specificity (more false negatives) and failure of certain test to pick up Omicron at all, still gave rise to a massive increase in the number of cases?
I like Joel Smalley's analyses <deadmantalking.substack.com> because we don't need to understand mechanisms.
This is useful because definitions of cases and infections were very corrupt. As you note the composition of the tests was varied, PCR Ct's of 40 (and over!) were deployed, who knows what was used in the lateral flow tests, and autopsies were not allowed.
I thought it was quite evident that the Delta wave was due to the vaxxes. In North America it was an out-of-season respiratory illness, but I couldn't get any traction pointing this out to my former colleagues, 95% of whom are still Covid narrative true believers.
Look at Steve Kirsch or Jessica Rose for VAERS mortality in the week after injection and see if the worry window is infective or toxic (I believe it is both.)
Thank you for your work in Kakastan. Here in Turdistan the plan progresses, although we are spared his presence for a day or two as his jet is broken down in India.
Thanks for the comment. I definitely think there is something to their arguments, I follow both Joel and Jessica’s work, but I don’t think it’s that simple in Kakistan. Figure 2 is deaths and cases, there is definitely a strong temporal correlation (stands out like dog’s balls) to the two booster shots but it’s not a strong (if any) correlation to the original two doses. The excess deaths have been falling off as less and less people take the booster (not shown but I have looked at it since Feb and last time I looked it was true, could have changed recently).
As for being out of season, you don’t get much more out of season than the middle of summer for Omicron for a peak in excess mortality. Kakistan is an island in South Pacific. Basically you need jabs + covid to have a dramatic effect on the excess mortality so it’s easy for the mainstream to say it’s just covid or long covid. Put you can’t hide the fact the shot doesn't work as advertised. I think long covid is mostly bullshit when it comes to excess deaths but it’s hard to discriminate, I’ve argued that it looks more like long-vax to me 😀.
I don’t think Brian actually wrote a part 3 to his series of the “Worry Window isn’t real”., I don’t know if it’s real or not, but I certainly think there is evidence for it being real in the correlation with boosters and deaths in Kakistan. The boosters were predominately mRNA while the early rollout was initially AZ which was being used less and less as the rollout progressed. I’ve got some better data since I wrote this back in Feb. so I might revisit it again from another angle but I don’t think there will be a smoking gun.
If you’re interested Andrew Madry has done some great work in regards to Australian all cause mortality. Australia is very similar in many respects to Kakistan. 😀
Apology’s to Brian, I just noticed spell check or my dyslexia kept referring to him as Brain. This was not intentional, I’ve now fixed the spelling mistakes (hopefully).
Maybe, Brain is appropriate, his articles certainly make me think and question my bias.
Please note that deaths appear to lead cases. This is probably an artifact of using a 30/31 day rolling average to come up with the cases per month estimate but it is weird that deaths lead the prevalence calculation where I did not use any averaging, the daily case data is probably a week behind the testing data causing a 1 week lag, maybe the reports I used also had some averaging built in to smooth it out and that led to some additional lag as well.
The fourth jab least resembles an actual roll-out because the timing and duration are not well documented. If it was earlier and narrower it would line up better with the ‘worry window’ hypothesis.
EDITS:
1. The old out by 1 error. The deaths were entered wrong, they should all be shown one month later. Will fix later.
2. Fixed 7:32am UTC Saturday 4 Feb 2022.
After reading this for about half an hour:
SARS-CoV-2 Viral Mutations: Impact on COVID-19 Tests
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-covid-19-and-medical-devices/sars-cov-2-viral-mutations-impact-covid-19-tests
I'm still none the wiser as to how the test performance is impacted by viral mutations. Maybe I missed something in this labyrinth of links and technical jargon.
Is it that Omicron was so prolific that even a reduction in test specificity (more false negatives) and failure of certain test to pick up Omicron at all, still gave rise to a massive increase in the number of cases?
Wow! That's one impressive mutation. 🤔
I like Joel Smalley's analyses <deadmantalking.substack.com> because we don't need to understand mechanisms.
This is useful because definitions of cases and infections were very corrupt. As you note the composition of the tests was varied, PCR Ct's of 40 (and over!) were deployed, who knows what was used in the lateral flow tests, and autopsies were not allowed.
I thought it was quite evident that the Delta wave was due to the vaxxes. In North America it was an out-of-season respiratory illness, but I couldn't get any traction pointing this out to my former colleagues, 95% of whom are still Covid narrative true believers.
Look at Steve Kirsch or Jessica Rose for VAERS mortality in the week after injection and see if the worry window is infective or toxic (I believe it is both.)
Thank you for your work in Kakastan. Here in Turdistan the plan progresses, although we are spared his presence for a day or two as his jet is broken down in India.
Thanks for the comment. I definitely think there is something to their arguments, I follow both Joel and Jessica’s work, but I don’t think it’s that simple in Kakistan. Figure 2 is deaths and cases, there is definitely a strong temporal correlation (stands out like dog’s balls) to the two booster shots but it’s not a strong (if any) correlation to the original two doses. The excess deaths have been falling off as less and less people take the booster (not shown but I have looked at it since Feb and last time I looked it was true, could have changed recently).
As for being out of season, you don’t get much more out of season than the middle of summer for Omicron for a peak in excess mortality. Kakistan is an island in South Pacific. Basically you need jabs + covid to have a dramatic effect on the excess mortality so it’s easy for the mainstream to say it’s just covid or long covid. Put you can’t hide the fact the shot doesn't work as advertised. I think long covid is mostly bullshit when it comes to excess deaths but it’s hard to discriminate, I’ve argued that it looks more like long-vax to me 😀.
I don’t think Brian actually wrote a part 3 to his series of the “Worry Window isn’t real”., I don’t know if it’s real or not, but I certainly think there is evidence for it being real in the correlation with boosters and deaths in Kakistan. The boosters were predominately mRNA while the early rollout was initially AZ which was being used less and less as the rollout progressed. I’ve got some better data since I wrote this back in Feb. so I might revisit it again from another angle but I don’t think there will be a smoking gun.
If you’re interested Andrew Madry has done some great work in regards to Australian all cause mortality. Australia is very similar in many respects to Kakistan. 😀
https://andrewmadry.substack.com/p/excess-mortality-in-australia-when
His paper is here:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/373143094_Excess_Mortality_in_Australia_-_When_were_the_Warning_Signs_Apparent